Пуски ядерных ракет в России

На прошлой неделе Россия продемонстрировала свою ядерную триаду, запустив ракеты с моря, земли и воздуха как напоминание о том, что, по крайней мере, в ядерном плане, она все еще остается сверхдержавой. Ясно, что ракеты работают; мы полагаем, что боеголовки тоже.

Хотя оружие современное, эффект немного архаичный – как демонстрация кавалерийских атак. Ядерные боеголовки практически непригодны для использования, кроме как в качестве ответа (и, следовательно, сдерживающего фактора) ядерной атаки. Современные международные конфликты теперь ведутся на другой основе, и настоящий арсенал Кремля включает другие возможности.

К видам секретных атак относятся убийства, «денежные бомбы», взрывающиеся внутри политической системы другой страны, и информационные операции, не в последнюю очередь связанные со взломом и утечкой политически конфиденциальных данных. Эти и другие «активные меры» являются частью сложного, хорошо отработанного и постоянно развивающегося арсенала внешнего воздействия. Арсенал развертывается по мере необходимости. Его использование вряд ли вызовет вооруженный ответ – или, более того, во многих случаях вообще какой-либо ответ.

Россия и Китай систематически секретно нападают на разные страны мира

Россия и Китай систематически используют эти арсеналы. За покушением следует информационная атака (как в случае покушения на антикоррупционера, отравление активиста Алексея Навального). Операция по политическому влиянию скрывается в рамках проекта энергетической инфраструктуры, такого как «Северный поток 2». Китайские шпионы крадут технологии, а китайские компании превращают их в продукты мирового уровня. Китайская инфраструктура за рубежом используется для сбора данных об иностранцах для использования китайскими спецслужбами.

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Никто с российской или китайской стороны не жалуется на нарушение профессиональной этики; все играют в одной команде.

Большое тактическое преимущество в том, что это оружие является секретным.

Приписать их источник и намерения достаточно сложно. К примеру, ядерное оружие России контролируется только Владимиром Путиным. Но много кто в России может заказывать и выполнять убийства, взломы или давать взятки влиятельным чиновникам. Свободные общества и государственные строи уязвимы по своей природе. Они позволяют людям делать и говорить то, что может отражать иностранное вмешательство. Если вы начнете с этим бороться, вы потеряете свободу, которую пытаетесь защитить.

Секретность разжигает конфликты и нестабильность

Ядерное оружие можно выставлять напоказ, тренировать и даже тщательно исследовать, чтобы показать другой стороне, что атака будет эффективной. Страны не могут хвастаться своим кибероружием, убийцами или коррумпированными связями в других странах, потому что злоумышленник немедленно примет меры, чтобы они не сработали.

У запада тоже есть свои активы

Голливуд, например, помогает превратить Соединенные Штаты в культурную сверхдержаву. Западная финансовая система почти незаменима для любого, кто хочет перемещать деньги или вести бизнес в 21 веке. Основные технологические компании – американские, а все современные технологии зависят от экономики и политики США.

Read also: Georgia included in the US defense budget 2021

Лучшие университеты по-прежнему (в основном) находятся в развитых индустриальных демократиях. Западная политическая и экономическая система, несмотря на все ее недостатки, сохраняет притягательную силу. Вы не увидите много людей, рискующих своей жизнью, чтобы добраться до России, Китая, Северной Кореи или Туркменистана.

Но запад редко использует эти преимущества в качестве оружия. Представьте протесты на Западе, если бы правительство США попыталось убедить Голливуд снимать фильмы, критикующие Коммунистическую партию Китая.

В западной системе шпионы, полиция, прокуроры, судьи, ученые, журналисты и руководители предприятий справедливо имеют четкие представления о том, что влечет за собой их работа, и что запрещено или не уместно. А вот коммунистические или пост-коммунистические диктатуры не переживают об уместности или этике вопроса. В этом и заключается дисбаланс ситуации.

Запад может принять контрмеры, чтобы повысить свою защиту, открыв информацию про грязные деньги, и укрепив свои компьютерные сети. Но им также нужно переосмыслить сдерживание таких стран как Россия и Китай.

Ядерное оружие Путина бесполезно, потому, что он боится возмездия и действительно боится закона. Что мы можем сделать, чтобы он, и Коммунистическая партия Китая – так же относились к своим секретным арсеналам?

Read also: Brexit without a deal and what does Georgia have to do with it?

Источник: The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Сообщение Secret weapons of Russia and China появились сначала на GeoInform.

What is a no-deal Brexit?

As the 31 December 2020 deadline for a trade agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom approaches, the risk of a “no deal” Brexit increases. When the UK initiated Brexit on 31 January 2020, the Withdrawal Agreement provided 11 months to negotiate a new trading relationship and extended the UK's participation in the EU single market and customs union during the transition period.

If no deal is reached by the deadline, it will trigger a so-called no-deal Brexit. In this case, trade relations between the UK and the EU will be governed by trade rules by default World Trade Organization (WTO).

A sudden switch to WTO rules would significantly increase tariffs and other trade restrictions, raise the cost of goods and complicate regulations, significantly increasing the financial and administrative burden on companies. A no-deal Brexit will greatly impact the UK, causing its gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 8.1% in 10 years.

What does WTO trade mean for Britain?

Under WTO rules, tariffs on transactions between two WTO members are subject to the WTO's most favored nation (MFN) rule, which requires a member to grant all other WTO members the same lowest tariff that it imposes on certain imported goods or services.

Both the EU and the UK have tariffs and other trade restrictions on MFN countries, so trade between the UK and the EU will suddenly be subject to a whole host of new trade barriers, not just tariffs. Examples of non-tariff barriers include quotas and customs checks for compliance with various regulations. As a member of the EU, goods from the UK do not require customs inspection at EU borders.

Read also: Forecast of GDP, trade balance and inflation rate in Georgia 2021

The exception is that two WTO countries can enter into a bilateral trade agreement to give each other preferential rates below those required by WTO rules. This is why the deal is so important; Without a deal, the UK and EU cannot simply reduce tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers with each other as they would have to do the same for all other WTO countries.

If a deal is reached, it could reduce or even avoid higher tariffs associated with a no-deal Brexit. The UK's costs under WTO rules would go beyond trade with the EU because Brexit would strip the UK of trading rights under EU agreements with 72 other countries. The UK reported new agreements with only 12 countries.

That is, in fact, they lose not just one deal, but dozens. It may also have trouble bringing them back as external trading partners will need to assess the impact of Brexit on their relationships, product sourcing and international locations for operations and financing, which could impact the terms of these new agreements.

WTO non-tariff rules will also apply to the EU-UK. deal. WTO environmental, labor and social standards may be less stringent than the EU standards that the UK currently meets. However, the cost of services will likely increase due to the costs of complying with different sets of rules.

What will be the overall economic impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU?

The cost of these new trade barriers to the UK economy will be significant. Around 90% of British goods exported to the EU will be subject to tariffs. UK GDP and per capita income are estimated to decline by 3.3% to 4.0% over 10 years.

When indirect impacts are taken into account, this reduction rises to a range of 7.6% to 8.1% of UK GDP and income per capita. For the EU, the direct costs of an unconditional Brexit would reduce GDP by 0.7% over 10 years. Even if without EU-UK tariffs.

If a deal is reached, the indirect costs of Brexit would still reduce UK GDP by at least 1% and EU GDP by at least 0.2% in 10 years. A UK government study found that in the absence of a deal, paperwork alone would cost businesses £15 billion ($20.1 billion) a year.

How will Brexit affect individual sectors of the UK and EU economies?

Trade in goods between the UK and the EU:

Trade barriers, new regulatory obstacles that will arise as a result of a no-deal Brexit, will not be distributed evenly; they will be hit much harder in some sectors than others. New trade barriers particularly affect the agricultural and automotive sectors, as well as the manufacturing sector in general.

While the average MFN tariff rate in the EU is 3.2%, tariffs on some UK goods will be significantly higher. Average EU import duties will be 11.1% on agricultural products, 15.7% on animal products and 35.4% on dairy products.

EU tariffs can be as high as 189% on some dairy products and 116% on animal products. UK tariffs on agricultural products will average around 16% and are intended to protect domestic producers of beef, lamb, poultry and pork in particular.

For UK-made cars sold in the EU, the tariff would be 10%, costing £5.7 billion a year and raising the average price of a car sold in the EU by £3,000. More than 30 automobile manufacturers, including Honda Motor Co. (HMC), Toyota Motor Co. (TM) and Jaguar Land Rover Ltd. (part of Tata Motors Ltd. (TTM)) are facing not only significant tariffs but also logistical challenges. because customs controls at borders can slow down movement through the canal.9

No-deal trade in services between UK and EU:

Services, including financial services, make up more than 80% of the UK's GDP, as do professional and technical business services, and financial services made up more than half of its services exports to the EU in 2019.10 4 Travel services are the EU's largest service exports to the UK

Of particular concern is the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the financial sector due to the size of the sector in the UK and the complexity of the regulations governing it. A separate UK and EU regime for banking and financial services will result in increased operating and regulatory costs.

Without a new deal, UK firms will no longer benefit from EU "passporting" privileges, which allow a firm authorized by one EU member to operate in others without needing additional permits.

In 2016, when British voters voted in favor of the Leave referendum, approximately 5,500 UK firms had passporting rights. Without these rights, UK financial firms would need to obtain separate authorization for most activities in each of the 27 EU member states, making it much more difficult to operate in EU markets.

The EU has proposed allowing UK firms to enjoy rights similar to passporting if they meet EU requirements “equivalence”. This means that the EU will recognize UK regulations governing a set of financial activities if they are considered equivalent to EU standards and regulations for the same activities, even if the UK rules do not exactly match EU rules.

However, even such equivalence is only available in the areas of investment banking and insurance; no equivalence rights are offered for retail banking and reinsurance. Expanding the permissible areas for equivalence decisions would require legal action from the EU.

Central counterparty clearing houses have a problem

One area that shows the complexity of this problem is – These are central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs). CCP – These are clearing houses for European derivatives trading, similar to US derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs). The EU announced some temporary EU clearances and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) will allow three UK central counterparties to operate in the EU from 2021. The UK will continue its “permit” regime for three years.

Due to the complexity and uncertainty of jurisdictional issues, UK banks are setting up foreign entities and relocating staff to the EU, with the most common destinations being Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and France.

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JPMorgan & Chase Co. (JPM), for example, is moving approximately $230 billion (€200 billion), almost 10% of its total balance sheet, from the UK to its subsidiary in Frankfurt, Germany; 200 London bankers will be transferred to Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and Madrid.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) и Morgan Stanley (MS) is also reportedly transferring staff and opening operations in the EU. In February 2019, repo (repo) dealers and two clearing houses in London and Paris moved almost all euro repo clearing from the UK to France; Almost all euro repos are now cleared by the EU Central Committee.

Brexit and Irish Border Protocol

One particularly thorny issue in the Brexit negotiations is that the Irish protocol adopted with the Withdrawal Agreement maintains an open border without any restrictions or tariffs between Northern Ireland, part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU.

This open border is intended to preserve the peace established by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement between two groups in Northern Ireland: republicans who wanted to unite the two territories into a single Irish nation, and unionists who wanted Northern Ireland to continue to be part of Great Britain.

The peace agreement ends a long period of violence known as the Troubles. Since the key point of the peace agreement was the opening and demilitarization of the border, any border regulation or control between the two areas could jeopardize the agreement and reignite violence.

Under the Irish Protocol, the UK will levy EU tariffs at the UK border in the Irish Sea on imports from the UK into Northern Ireland that are deemed eligible for remittance into the Republic.

If any EU tariffs are paid on imports from the UK that are not remitted to the Republic but remain in Northern Ireland, they will be refunded. Trade between Ireland and the rest of the EU will continue to be free of tariffs and regulations.

After four years, and at intervals thereafter, Northern Ireland will have the right, but not the obligation, to terminate the Irish Protocol.

How are things going with Brexit now?

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's recent threats to scrap parts of the Withdrawal Agreement, including the sensitive Irish Protocol, have raised further potential problems. The purpose of the Prime Minister's threat to the Irish Protocol is unclear, but is unlikely to lead to any change.

The EU insists that compliance with the Irish Protocol is a treaty obligation. Moreover, Britain's disregard for the Irish Protocol would harm its own interests: Britain is seeking a trade deal with the United States, in which leaders of both political parties have said they would oppose an agreement if the open Irish border was threatened.

Brexit and the problem of fishing in British waters

However, the opposition in the UK House of Lords blocked the Prime Minister's proposal, which eased tensions somewhat. Unsettled issues include the transfer of British North Sea fishing rights to EU countries. Although fishing is a minor part of the EU economy, the issue is of political importance for Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany and especially France.

Also undecided is the size of permissible government subsidies for businesses, for which the UK has sought wide latitude. For some time the prospect of an agreement was seriously threatened by the Prime Minister's motion in Parliament to ignore the Irish protocol. The UK proposal would restore the border between Irish territories.

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Faced with strong opposition from EU members, and especially from the United States, whose politicians had threatened that breaking the Irish Protocol would lead to a ban on any trade agreement between the US and the UK, the Prime Minister announced that the UK would comply with the Irish Protocol.

To some extent, financial markets have already priced in a no-deal Brexit; therefore, if the deal goes through, the stock could rise. However, due to the significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the UK and global economy, the short-term impact of a no-deal Brexit may be difficult to separate from the impact of the pandemic.

How can Brexit be beneficial for Georgia?

At the beginning of December 2020, the UK and Ukraine announced a free trade and visa liberalization agreement. This shows that the Cabinet headed by Boris Johnson is ready for a no-deal exit from the EU, and the UK is looking for new strategic partners. So how can Brexit be beneficial for Georgia?

The Georgian economy is heavily dependent on foreign investment, and all goods produced 51+% in Georgia are duty-free in the EU. Georgia can become an excellent business hub for UK enterprises and factories in order to somehow preserve the EU market.

Another plus of Georgia for any Western business – low taxes. In Georgia, taxes are really low, for example, an IT business can pay only 5% when withdrawing dividends, and individual entrepreneurs can pay only 1% on their business turnover. Almost all entrepreneurs in the EU and UK dream of such taxes.

What can Brexit bring for Georgia?

• Robust GDP growth.
• Job creation.
• Recognition in the global business space.
• Stability of the economy, lari exchange rate and political processes.
• Attracting the most advanced and technologically advanced business sectors to Georgia.

What does Georgia need to do?

Georgia has everything to attract business from all over the world. Analysts predict the signing of a free trade agreement between the United States and Georgia as early as 2021. This will increase Georgia's attractiveness for foreign capital. However, Georgia should work on popularizing itself in the countries it is interested in, in this case the UK. Just like Georgia did when attracting tourists from the EU a couple of years ago.

The Ministry of Economy of Georgia should purchase advertising on central television channels, telling how it is profitable to do business in Georgia. This is exactly what Estonia did and became “mecca” for IT startups from all over the EU, although economically running an IT business in Georgia is much more profitable than in Estonia, and open a business in Georgia much easier.

Сообщение Brexit without a deal and what does Georgia have to do with it? появились сначала на GeoInform.

Main forecast for GDP growth, trade balance and inflation rate in Georgia:

• The real GDP growth rate in October 2020 was -3.9% year on year. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first ten months of 2020 was -5.1%.
• GeoStat recently released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2020. Growth rates for the 1st and 2nd quarters were revised downward to 2.2% (by 0.1 percentage points) and -13.2% (by 0.9 percentage points), respectively.
• As a result of the update, the growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2020 was unchanged at -3.3%. The second ISET-PI forecast for the 1st quarter of 2021 assumes GDP growth of -1.6%.
• Based on October data, we expect annual growth in 2020 to be -4.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.

According to a recent forecast ISET-PI, Georgia's GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 decreased from -1.4% to -1.6%. This correction is mainly explained by GeoStat's downward revision of growth rates for the 1st and 2nd quarter (by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively).

Otherwise, in terms of October data, several variables have changed significantly, affecting growth forecasts.

Bank deposits in national and foreign currencies in Georgia

The first set of variables that have a moderate impact on our forecast relates to bank deposits in Georgian domestic and foreign currencies in commercial banks. All categories of deposits in national currency (except for currency in circulation) showed year-on-year growth in October.

In particular, demand deposits in national currency increased by 3.5% per year, and time deposits increased by 73.6% per year. Consequently, the total volume of deposits in national currency increased by 27.1% per year.

During the same period, time deposits decreased by 0.6% on a monthly basis, while demand deposits and cash in circulation decreased by 4.2% and 9.2%, respectively, compared to the previous month.

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В отличие от депозитов в национальной валюте, общий объем депозитов в иностранной валюте увеличился относительно умеренно – на 19,4% по сравнению с тем же месяцем предыдущего года. За тот же период почти все категории валютных депозитов увеличивались более чем на 10% ежегодно. Ежегодный рост депозитов в иностранной валюте в основном обусловлен резким обесцениванием национальной валюты. 

However, the growth rate remains noticeable even after excluding the exchange rate effect. As a result, deposit dollarization increased by 0.6 percentage points per month and decreased by 1.7 percentage points per year. Despite the positive annual trends, deposit-related variables still had a small negative contribution to real GDP growth according to our model.

Forecast of VAT turnover in Georgia in 2021

In terms of other variables of interest, VAT turnover in October decreased by 3.8% per annum and increased by 13.8% per month. Therefore, this variable had a negative contribution to real GDP growth.

Реальный эффективный обменный курс грузинский лари – доллар США

In October, the real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciated slightly by 0.8% m/m and remained largely stable year-on-year. Notably, the real exchange rate of the lari depreciated against the euro and dollar by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, on a monthly basis, and by 10% and 5.5%, respectively, on an annual basis.

In contrast, the REER increased relative to its two main trading partners: Turkey (by 2.4% per month and 17.1% per year) and Russia (by 1.4% per month and 11% per year). A decrease in REER is usually associated with an increase in the competitiveness of domestic export goods in foreign markets, but it also leads to higher prices for imported goods.

Overall, REER-related variables had a small negative contribution to forecasts of real GDP growth.

Georgian foreign trade indicators in 2021

In October 2020, Georgia's exports decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, which was mainly caused by a decrease in exports/re-exports of cars and trucks, as well as alcoholic beverages to Armenia; passenger cars, tobacco and carbon steel rods to Azerbaijan; cars, medicines, natural grape wines and mineral waters to the Kyrgyz Republic; and ferroalloys and frozen lamb/goat meat to Iran.

At the same time, Georgian exports to China (due to increased exports/re-exports of precious metals and copper ores and concentrates) and Saudi Arabia (due to increased exports of live animals) increased significantly.

At the end of 2020, imports of goods in Georgia decreased by 23.5%, which was caused by a reduction in imports of oil and fuel products from Russia (mainly due to a significant annual decline in crude oil prices on the international market). Other imports affected include: passenger vehicles from the US; copper ores and concentrates from Brazil; petroleum coke bitumen and paving slabs from Iran; and cars from Germany.

On the contrary, Georgian imports of precious metals and concentrates from Armenia; The production of oil and copper ores and concentrates from Azerbaijan increased annually. Consequently, the trade deficit fell sharply by 34.8% per year to $393.5 million. Overall, trade-related variables contributed positively to the GDP growth forecast.

Analysis of the inflow of remittances to Georgia in 2021

After a significant slowdown in remittance inflows at the beginning of the year, remittance inflows began to pick up in June. In October, remittances rose 18.6% year on year to $181.7 million.

The main sources of this increase were Ukraine (by 151.9% y/y, contribution 4.3 p.p.), Italy (by 30.9% y/y, 4.2 p.p.), USA (by 39 .5% y/y, 3.9 p.p.), Greece (23.6% y/y, 2.5 p.p.), Germany (by 74.6% y/y, 2.2 p.p. .p.), Azerbaijan (by 145.1% y/y, 2.1 p.p.) and Turkey (by 26% y/y, 1.4 p.p.).

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At the same time, cash inflows decreased from the Kyrgyz Republic (by 83.1% y/y, -1.7 p.p.), Russia (by 7% y/y, -1.7 p.p.) and Kazakhstan (by 44% y/y, -0.9 p.p.). The recovery in remittance flows made a significant positive contribution to the growth outlook.

International visits and tourism in Georgia in 2021

Profits and receipts from tourists have declined sharply as a result of numerous travel bans, as well as precautions taken by potential tourists. So what will be the forecast for international visits and tourism in Georgia in 2021?

In October, the number of foreign tourists decreased by 92.5% per year (due to Russia [-17.1 p.p.], Azerbaijan [-17.4 p.p.], Armenia [-16.8 p.p. ] and Turkey [-10.2 p.p.]), while the decline in the number of tourists (visitors who spent 24 hours or more in Georgia) amounted to 88%. Overall, the sharp decline in the number of visitors and tourists, along with the sharp decline in tourism spending, made a significant negative contribution to the growth forecast.

Inflation in Georgia in 2020

Georgia's 2020 consumer price inflation stood at 3.8% in October, slightly above the projected 3%. It is noteworthy that inflation approached the target value at the end of 2020. About 1.5 percentage points of CPI inflation were associated with higher food prices (5.4% annual increase), while tobacco prices contributed 0.4 percentage points (13.5% annual increase). However, the decline in oil prices (16.7% per annum) made a noticeable negative contribution (0.6 percentage points) to the annual inflation rate.

The latter trend is mainly a reflection of the significant weakening of oil prices on the global market (the spot price of Brent crude oil in Europe (COP) fell by 32.7% annually). Overall, CPI-related variables contributed positively to the GDP forecast.

Our forecasting model is based on the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) methodology. We have built a dynamic model of the Georgian economy, which assumes that all economic variables, including GDP itself, are determined by a small number of factors that can be extracted from the data long before GDP growth estimates are published.

Сообщение Forecast of GDP, trade balance and inflation rate in Georgia 2021 появились сначала на GeoInform.

Meeting developers in Georgia

In the summer of 2018, the first real estate exhibition was held in Batumi, with the aim of attracting investors from neighboring countries. Of course, it’s hard to call it an exhibition. 6-8 stands of local developers were presented, however, in fact, you can’t ask anyone in Batumi – all owners of construction companies, just not everyone wanted to show themselves at the exhibition. And after visiting several developers' offices, it became clear why.

In offices, they often cannot provide accurate information on specific technical issues. For example: how communications will be carried out; what will be the decoration of the walls (external and internal); will there be waterproofing of the façade, roofs and walls, etc.

Quality of new buildings in Georgia in 2020

This is a must see. When you enter a new building for the first time in your life, you can, of course, decide that this is how it should look. But no, this is far from true.

An apartment in a new building should be bright and free of construction waste. Preferably with internal partitions and windows. Of course, we are talking about ready-made, commissioned objects.

For comparison, look what they look like apartments in new buildings in Turkey.

Yes, of course, there are different types of readiness of real estate, but then there is no point in talking in advertising brochures about comparing prices for new buildings in neighboring countries. This – heaven and earth.

The strangest thing is that Georgian developers do not even think about removing the mountains of construction waste in apartments, at least for good photos. All this can be seen on the websites real estate agencies in Georgiaselling such apartments.

As a result, when buying such an apartment, you must spend time cleaning the apartment from everything that the builders left behind, try to wash the windows of cement or paint. Break through a window or door in a room located inside the apartment.

But maybe they will offer you to buy an apartment without walls and an entrance door, just a place on the floor. All this is available on the real estate market in Georgia. The main thing is not to buy “pig in a poke” online. You must see what you are buying and carefully read the contract with the developer.

Real estate prices in Georgia in 2021

Real estate prices in Georgia in 2021. How objective is the price for new buildings and real estate in Georgia? You only need to compare a few numbers to understand why they are overvalued and a bubble has formed.

According to the IMF, global GDP fell by 5% in 2020. This is due to the closure of businesses during the 2020 Pandemic and the shutdown of many markets.

• If we compare the crisis of 2008, then in 2009 world GDP fell by only 0.08%.
• According to the Georgian Ministry of Statistics, GDP fell by 5.1% in 2020.

Prices for New real estate in Georgia in 2019 were as follows:

• black frame - from $550 per square meter
• white frame - from $1100 per square meter

Considering that in large cities of Georgia the construction business has acquired noticeable proportions in recent years, the main blow from the 2020 pandemic fell on it. The next link in this decline was the real estate market and the tourism business.

Problems of developers in Georgia in 2020

Since most construction projects are pledged to banks, it is not difficult to guess what losses and problems developers now suffer every day.

Those construction companies that can quickly accept the fact of losses will be the first to reduce real estate prices in 2021 in order to maintain some part of the business and pay off interest on loan debt.

Today, by the beginning of 2021, there are already offers from developers at $399 per square meter. in a ready-to-move-in house.

The 2020 pandemic has led us to an economic depression. Having carried out even a superficial analysis of the real estate markets in the world, it is not difficult to see their decline associated with the closure of shops, offices, shopping centers and restaurants, and the almost complete closure of the tourism business in the coming years. Against this background, most of the players in the construction market have already become bankrupt.

Real estate agencies are closing. So how does the situation on global real estate markets differ from Georgia? Nothing. The only worse thing is that most of the developments were planned for rental to tourists.

If the owners of such real estate have not yet realized that “the same as before” will no longer be the case, they are not preparing a new business for themselves, diversifying the old one. This crisis will force prices to come down, otherwise it will be even more difficult for them to accept their losses in 2021-22. And the real estate “bubble” will burst again, as it has happened many times in history, revealing real prices per square meter in Georgia.

Сообщение Georgian real estate market analysis 2021 появились сначала на GeoInform.